A tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the eastern part of the Caribbean islands today or Saturday. There is also a possibility of a tropical depression forming in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic.
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea associated with a tropical wave continues to produce rain and storm activity. Development of this system is not expected today as it moves west-northwest at around fifteen mph, and the Air Force mission planned for today is likely to be canceled.
The disturbance is expected to move west over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche Saturday night or early Sunday, where some development could occur.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be associated with the tropical wave affecting parts of Central America and Mexico during the weekend. The probability of formation within 48 hours is around 30%. The probability of formation over the next seven days is also below 30%.
