• A majority of experts sees a rebound in international tourism in 2021, in particular by the third quarter 2021, while around 20% expects it to occur only in 2022.
• Most experts do not see a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels happening before 2023.
By regions, the largest share of experts pointing to a return to 2019 levels in 2023 or later are in Europe (74%) the Americas (71%) and Asia and the Pacific (66%). In Africa and the Middle East this share is 60% and 50% respectively. Half of respondents from the Middle East and 40% from Africa expect the recovery to 2019 levels to take place by 2022.
• Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence. The lack of coordinated response among countries to ensure harmonized protocols and coordinated restrictions, as well as the deteriorating economic environment were also identified by experts as important obstacles for recovery.
Slow flight resumption was considered comparatively less determinant among factors mentioned.
